今天快讯∶相比鲍威尔“收传票”，下周这场庭审对美联储独立性“更加重要”

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Supreme Court hearing on January 21 regarding the case against Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is expected to have significant implications for the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential for political influence over monetary policy [1][3]. Group 1: Legal Implications - The Supreme Court will hear arguments about whether the President can dismiss Federal Reserve officials "for cause," which could set a critical legal precedent for the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][5]. - If the court rules against Cook, it could increase the likelihood of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell being removed due to the ongoing investigation by the Justice Department [1][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Financial markets have reacted to the uncertainty, with traders betting that the Federal Reserve will not take action in its upcoming policy meeting, pushing expectations for the next rate cut to June [2]. - The market has shown a clear directional response, with declines in the dollar, stock market, and bonds, indicating potential long-term risks if the situation escalates [2]. Group 3: Structural Risks - Analysts warn that if Trump wins the case and gains the ability to reshape the Federal Reserve, it could lead to a Federal Reserve composed of more dovish members, which may not respond appropriately to economic cycles [6]. - The potential erosion of checks on executive power could result in significant structural risks for the market, with the possibility of a severe market downturn if the independence of the Federal Reserve is compromised [6][7]. Group 4: Powell's Position - Powell may decide to remain on the Federal Reserve Board beyond his term as Chair, which ends in May, as a response to the pressure from the Trump administration [7]. - The probability of Powell continuing as a Federal Reserve Board member after his Chair term has increased, reflecting a shift in market expectations regarding his departure [7].