中美“分手了”？美元绑定石油又绑定中国制造，如今却又反悔了？

Core Viewpoint - The current relationship between China and the U.S. is not a separation but a reconnection, with the strength of the dollar stemming from a collective preference among global holders and the delayed effects of a rebalancing in the supply chain [3] Group 1: Dollar's Strength and Global Dynamics - The dollar's strength is not solely due to the U.S. but is supported by a global network of vested interests, with various industries and markets relying on dollar-denominated transactions [1][4] - The S&P 500 is projected to reach approximately 6845 points by 2025, reflecting a 16% increase, while the Shiller CAPE valuation approaches 39, indicating potential risks of a bubble, yet no one is willing to trigger a collapse [6] - The current economic environment shows a paradox where U.S. debt continues to rise, yet the dollar remains stable, leading to confusion among observers [7] Group 2: Historical Context and Economic Mechanisms - The dollar's endurance is attributed to its historical anchoring to oil, which has become a necessity, unlike gold, which requires extraction [8][10] - The integration of China's manufacturing capabilities into the global economy has created a symbiotic relationship where the U.S. prints money to sustain consumption while China provides goods in exchange for dollars [10][12] - The shift in industrial capabilities, with countries like China moving up the value chain, is causing anxiety in the U.S., reminiscent of past economic shifts that disrupted established industries [14] Group 3: Current Trends and Future Implications - The trend of "de-dollarization" is driven by a global instinct for risk aversion, with countries diversifying away from dollar reliance, evidenced by increased gold purchases and currency swaps [19][20] - Despite political rhetoric advocating for decoupling, practical trade relationships continue to thrive, highlighting the complexities of global interdependence [21] - The decline of dollar hegemony is not due to a deliberate overthrow but rather a fundamental shift in economic realities, emphasizing the importance of industrial capabilities and the production of irreplaceable goods [22][24]