世行上调全球增长预期，却警告最疲软十年？

Group 1 - The World Bank has raised the global growth forecast to 2.6%, but warns that the next decade could be the weakest since the 1960s, highlighting a contradiction that is not necessarily at odds [4][5] - The increase in growth is primarily driven by a surge in AI investments, which temporarily supports the global economy, akin to adding a turbocharger to an aging engine without addressing underlying structural issues [4][5] - Structural divergence is accelerating, with wealthy economies benefiting from technological dividends while low-income economies struggle to catch up [5][6] Group 2 - There is a growing disparity in living standards, where average improvements do not reflect the worsening conditions experienced by many, indicating a widening gap in capabilities rather than a cyclical issue [6][7] - Real pressures are emerging from trade, with the delayed effects of U.S. tariff policies likely leading to a slowdown in global trade growth by 2026 [7][8] - The world still requires trade, but the rules are becoming more fragmented, costs are rising, and uncertainty is increasing, posing a significant stress test for economies heavily reliant on external demand [8] Group 3 - The World Bank suggests that attention should not solely focus on growth figures; investments should be directed towards technology and education to enhance capabilities and resilience [8] - The current growth phase is viewed not as a reversal but as a bifurcation point, emphasizing that structural integrity and long-term strategies are more critical than mere speed [8]