美联储新主席揭晓在即、鲍威尔被调查，特朗普能如愿掌控利率吗？

Core Viewpoint - The selection of the new chairperson of the Federal Reserve is a focal point in global financial markets, with the announcement expected in January 2026. The three finalists are Christopher Waller, Kevin Hassett, and Kevin Warsh, all of whom support interest rate cuts but differ in their approaches and views on the reform of the Federal Reserve's functions [1][4][5]. Candidate Profiles - Christopher Waller, aged 67, has a background in macroeconomics and has served as a director at the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank since 2009. He has been a Federal Reserve Board member since December 2020 and holds multiple committee positions within the Fed [2]. - Kevin Hassett, 64, has held various economic advisory roles, including serving as the chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under Trump. He advocates for immediate and significant liquidity release due to the productivity revolution driven by artificial intelligence [1][4]. - Kevin Warsh, the youngest at 56, has experience in both the private sector and as a former Federal Reserve governor. He emphasizes the need to reduce the balance sheet before considering interest rate cuts and criticizes past aggressive quantitative easing policies [4][5]. Divergent Views on Monetary Policy - Hassett is the most aggressive in advocating for immediate and substantial liquidity release, believing that technological advancements will mitigate inflation [4]. - Warsh supports a more cautious approach, suggesting a balance sheet reduction before rate cuts, and criticizes the Fed's deviation from its core responsibilities [4]. - Waller suggests that current interest rates are only 50 to 100 basis points away from neutral levels and advocates for a data-driven approach to rate adjustments [4]. Concerns Over Federal Reserve Independence - The ongoing criminal investigation into Jerome Powell has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, potentially influencing the new chair's ability to implement aggressive rate cuts [1][7][8]. - Analysts note that regardless of who is appointed, the new chair will not have unilateral control over interest rates, as decisions are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which currently shows significant internal disagreement on the pace of rate cuts [7][9]. Market Predictions - As of the latest updates, Warsh is leading in the predictions for the new chair position, with probabilities of 40% to 42% compared to Hassett's 36% to 38% and Waller's 10% [6][7]. - Analysts suggest that Warsh's experience and views align well with both the need for independence and the current economic context, making him a strong candidate [6][7]. FOMC Composition and Future Implications - The FOMC's voting members include 12 individuals, with a small proportion currently leaning dovish. The upcoming changes in the committee's composition will be crucial for future monetary policy decisions [10][12]. - The current structure allows for potential changes in the board, with Trump having the opportunity to nominate new members, which could further influence the Fed's direction [13][14].