打伊朗恐有“翻车”可能！特朗普干预计划陷两难

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for U.S. military intervention in Iran following the recent military actions in Venezuela, highlighting the complexities and uncertainties involved in such a move, especially in light of the ongoing protests in Iran and the government's violent crackdown on dissent [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Military Actions and Strategies - President Trump is considering imposing a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran and is contemplating "strong measures" if Iran continues to suppress peaceful protests [1]. - Possible military targets include Iranian military infrastructure, command centers, and weapon depots, with speculation that high-ranking Iranian leaders could also be targeted [2]. - Experts warn that military strikes could unify the Iranian government and populace against the U.S., as the Iranian authorities blame protests on "rioters" and "terrorists" allegedly incited by the U.S. and Israel [2][3]. Group 2: Challenges and Risks of Intervention - The complexity of Iran's political landscape poses significant challenges for U.S. military planners, particularly in accurately identifying targets that could lead to a shift in military loyalty [2]. - The U.S. has reduced its military presence in the Persian Gulf and Mediterranean, complicating potential intervention strategies [4]. - Iran has threatened to retaliate against U.S. assets in the region if attacked, while Trump has vowed to respond with unprecedented force, increasing the risk of escalation [4]. Group 3: Diplomatic Considerations - Despite military threats, there are indications that the U.S. government is open to diplomatic solutions, as evidenced by reports of Iranian leaders seeking negotiations [7][8]. - The White House emphasizes that diplomatic measures remain the preferred approach, although military options are still on standby [8][9]. - The unpredictability of Trump's actions creates uncertainty regarding the U.S. response to Iran's internal situation and external pressures [6][7].