2025猪市在成本与效率中重塑，微利时代寻求新平衡

Core Viewpoint - The domestic pig market in 2025 is experiencing significant adjustments due to abundant supply and weak demand, leading to a decline in average prices and creating challenges for producers [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The average price of pigs in 2025 is approximately 13.80 yuan/kg, significantly lower than in 2024, with prices fluctuating from around 16 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to below 11 yuan/kg by late October [1][2]. - The supply of pigs is robust, driven by a high number of breeding sows and increased production efficiency, resulting in actual pork supply exceeding market expectations [2][5]. - Demand for pork is weakening, with traditional consumption peaks failing to stimulate demand, leading to a situation where price increases do not correspond with demand growth [2][6]. Group 2: Cost Management and Industry Dynamics - In response to declining prices, pig farming companies are undergoing an "efficiency revolution," focusing on cost reduction to survive, with leading companies like Muyuan Foods reducing their breeding costs from approximately 13 yuan/kg to 11.3 yuan/kg [5][6]. - The cost reduction is attributed to improved production efficiency and utilization rates, with leading firms achieving a PSY (pigs weaned per sow per year) of over 28, indicating fewer sows are needed for the same amount of pork production [5][6]. - The competition in the pig farming sector is intensifying, with a shift towards "cost reduction and efficiency enhancement," leading to increased pressure on smaller farms and a trend towards larger, more efficient operations [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - For 2026, there is cautious optimism, with expectations of continued supply pressure in the first half but potential improvements in the second half as production capacity decreases and seasonal demand increases [6][7]. - The average price for pigs in 2026 is projected to be between 12 and 13 yuan/kg, with a potential for prices to rise later in the year [7]. - Policy interventions are expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing prices, with ongoing regulatory measures aimed at restoring prices to reasonable levels [7][8]. Group 4: Risk Management Strategies - The industry is evolving towards a new paradigm characterized by "policy guidance, market adjustment, and efficiency supremacy," necessitating an upgrade in survival strategies for pig farmers [8]. - Recommendations for pig farmers include maintaining biosecurity, enhancing efficiency, managing production capacity, and utilizing futures and derivatives for risk management [8][9]. - The trading volume of pig futures in 2025 reached 17.993 million contracts, indicating increased market liquidity and the growing importance of risk management tools among producers [9].