在美国“医药春晚”，中国药企从“可选消费”变成“必选消费”

Core Insights - The recent J.P. Morgan Global Healthcare Conference highlighted an increased focus on mergers and external licensing among multinational pharmaceutical companies, particularly regarding innovative drug assets from China [1][2] - J.P. Morgan's analysis indicates that Chinese innovative drugs have evolved from being optional assets to a category that multinational companies must systematically evaluate during asset selection, although this change is highly dependent on clinical data and global development capabilities [1][2][5] Group 1: Mergers and Acquisitions - Mergers and acquisitions are becoming essential survival tools for pharmaceutical companies due to expiring core patents, declining internal R&D returns, and intensified competition in key therapeutic areas [2] - The criteria for selecting external assets have shifted from merely technical concepts to the ability to enter late-stage clinical or registration phases within a controllable timeframe [2][5] Group 2: Clinical Progress and Cost Considerations - The attention on Chinese innovative drugs is primarily driven by clinical progress rather than cost advantages, with R&D costs being a secondary factor compared to time and certainty [3] - Some Chinese pharmaceutical projects have advanced to compete globally in certain indications, not due to innovative mechanisms but due to clinical execution efficiency and patient enrollment speed [3][5] Group 3: External Licensing as a Risk Management Tool - External licensing is increasingly viewed as a risk management strategy rather than a passive monetization approach, helping Chinese companies reduce uncertainty in global development [4] - For external licensing to enhance long-term value, the assets must have clear clinical positioning and scalability; otherwise, such transactions may only serve as one-time financial arrangements [4] Group 4: Industry Dynamics and Investment Focus - The current changes reflect an upgrade in the asset selection mechanism rather than an overall revaluation of the industry, with some Chinese innovative projects entering the evaluative scope due to their progress and data quality [5][6] - The differentiation within the Chinese pharmaceutical sector is expected to intensify, with projects that can meet global evaluation criteria likely to attract more capital attention [6] Group 5: Ongoing Risks - Despite the positive trends, inherent risks in the pharmaceutical industry remain, including clinical failures, competitive landscape changes, and regulatory uncertainties, which can significantly impact asset valuations [7] - The assessment of the global potential of Chinese innovative drugs should be based on verifiable data and pathways rather than merely on trend narratives [7]