Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-14 06:42Core Viewpoint - The December CPI data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%. However, this report did not ignite investor optimism, as the market did not interpret it as a clear signal for the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: CPI Analysis - Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley have raised concerns about the December CPI, suggesting it is filled with unsustainable statistical noise and distortions, indicating that the true inflation trend should be assessed through the upcoming core PCE price index, which the Federal Reserve pays more attention to and is expected to rebound significantly [1][3] - The December CPI's cooling is seen as a technical factor leading to a false impression, with significant data distortions masking the true inflation intensity. For instance, prices for information technology goods fell by 2.16%, and wireless telephone services dropped by 3.33%, collectively lowering the core CPI by about 6 basis points [1] Group 2: Alternative Inflation Indicators - The Cleveland Fed's trimmed-mean CPI and median CPI for December showed month-on-month increases of 0.31% and 0.28%, respectively, both higher than the core CPI, indicating that underlying inflation pressures in the U.S. are more entrenched than suggested by the core CPI [3] - Price data for specific categories supports this view, with clothing prices rising by 0.59%, the second-largest monthly increase since February 2025, and household goods prices increasing by 0.54%, the third-largest increase since November 2024 [3] Group 3: PCE Forecast Adjustments - Morgan Stanley has raised its December core PCE month-on-month forecast from 0.37% to 0.46%, contrasting sharply with the overall CPI performance. The key difference lies in the weight distribution of the two inflation indicators, with stronger price increases in higher-weighted categories in the PCE basket [4] - Notably, video media rental prices surged by 19.5% month-on-month, contributing approximately 8 basis points to the core PCE, while software prices also contributed 8 basis points. Even excluding these two items, the core PCE month-on-month rate would still reach 0.30% [4] Group 4: Tariff Impact on Inflation - Both Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley have observed that prices for tariff-sensitive goods rose again in December, continuing the upward trend after a brief decline in October and November. Deutsche Bank noted that while clothing prices have not yet significantly reflected tariff pressures, upstream supply chain pressures are accumulating, indicating that consumer price increases may be imminent [6] Group 5: Federal Reserve's Response - The Federal Reserve's reaction to the noisy CPI data is under scrutiny. Deutsche Bank believes that the December CPI represents a mix of distorted data recovery and genuine weakness signals, suggesting that the Fed will require more data to support further interest rate cuts [8] - Morgan Stanley assesses that the Fed can identify the "noise" in the data and may downplay the strong performance indicated in the core PCE projections, but the uncertainty in the data will likely lead the Fed to maintain a cautious stance [8]