美联储陷“影子主席”危机！鲍威尔遭刑事调查，特朗普插手货币政策暗战升级

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing an unprecedented crisis of independence due to a criminal investigation targeting Chairman Jerome Powell, which has sparked a political battle involving the Trump administration and former Fed leaders [1][2][4]. Group 1: Investigation and Political Pressure - The U.S. Department of Justice issued a subpoena for a criminal investigation into Powell, marking the first time a sitting Fed chairman has faced such scrutiny [1]. - Former Fed Chairmen Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke criticized the investigation as an unprecedented attack on the independence of the central bank [2]. - President Trump downplayed the investigation but indicated political motivations behind it, coinciding with his announcement of potential new Fed chair candidates [2]. Group 2: Power Dynamics and Potential Outcomes - The focus of the power struggle is the Fed chair position, which is set to see a transition at the end of January, although Powell's term as a board member extends until May [2][3]. - Powell has engaged a top Washington law firm for legal counsel, indicating he is preparing for a significant battle [2]. - The emergence of "shadow chair" candidates like Kevin Hassett and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin raises concerns about the politicization of monetary policy [3]. Group 3: Internal Disagreements and Future Implications - There are significant divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding interest rate policies, which could lead to a loss of leadership for a new chair if they pursue aggressive rate cuts favored by Trump [4]. - Historical precedents suggest that crises of independence at the Fed often coincide with economic turmoil, highlighting the potential for instability in the current environment [4]. - The intertwining of criminal investigations and political interference threatens the Fed's independence, which could have profound implications for both the U.S. economy and global financial markets [4].