日股新高、日元逼近160！日本大选定生死？德银拆解三种剧本

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of early elections in Japan, led by Prime Minister Sanna Takashi, is stirring financial markets, driving Japanese stocks to new highs, accelerating yen depreciation, and pushing bond yields to decades-high levels [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Market Reaction - The Nikkei 225 index rose over 1% on Wednesday, surpassing the 54,000 mark, following a more than 3% increase the previous day, marking a historical high [1]. - The Tokyo Stock Exchange index also continued its upward trend, increasing by 0.87% [1]. Group 2: Currency Market Dynamics - The yen fell below the 159 mark against the dollar, reaching its weakest level since July 2024 [4]. - Market speculation regarding the Japanese authorities' tolerance for yen depreciation remains high due to a lack of clear guidance on intervention timing and scale [4]. Group 3: Bond Market Developments - There was a notable sell-off in the bond market, with the five-year government bond yield rising by 1.5 basis points to 1.615%, the highest since its introduction in 2000 [7]. - The auction for five-year government bonds showed weak demand, with the bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 3.08, the lowest since August of the previous year [8]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy Implications - The anticipated increase in government spending and debt supply is causing growing concerns among investors [7]. - The Japanese government plans to introduce a record initial budget in the new fiscal year starting in April, while also reducing long-term bond issuance [8]. Group 5: Interest Rate Outlook - The ongoing depreciation of the yen may pressure the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates sooner than expected, with potential increases as early as April [9]. - Market expectations for the first rate hike of the year are not fully priced in until July, indicating room for further adjustments if yen weakness persists [9]. Group 6: Election Scenarios and Market Impact - Deutsche Bank outlined three potential election scenarios: 1. Absolute stable majority for the ruling party, seen as bullish for the market [10]. 2. Regaining a simple majority, which would reduce uncertainty but still pose governance challenges [10]. 3. Failing to secure a majority, interpreted as a significant setback, likely leading to market sell-offs [10]. - Investors are closely monitoring the Prime Minister's statements and the ruling party's decisions, as the upcoming month is critical for validating their confidence in Japanese political stability [10].