“天量存款”到期后 会否搬入股市？

Core Viewpoint - Multiple banks are reducing deposit rates, with a significant amount of residential fixed-term deposits maturing in 2026, leading to potential "deposit migration" towards the stock market as investors seek better returns [1][6]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Changes - Several banks have lowered their deposit rates, with Anhui Xin'an Bank reducing its two-year fixed deposit rate by 10 basis points to 2.25% [1]. - Many small and medium-sized banks have also continued to decrease deposit rates, entering the "1 era" where rates are below 2% [2]. - National commercial banks have similarly reduced rates, with some banks offering one-year fixed deposit rates as low as 1.1% [3]. Group 2: Maturing Deposits - In 2026, approximately 70 trillion yuan of residential fixed-term deposits will mature, an increase of about 10 trillion yuan compared to 2025 [1][6]. - The first quarter of this year is a critical period for these maturing deposits, with state-owned banks being the primary players [1]. - Predictions indicate that the total amount of maturing deposits will grow by 12% and 17% in 2026 compared to 2025 [6]. Group 3: Large Denomination Certificates of Deposit (CDs) - The attractiveness of large denomination CDs is diminishing, with many banks no longer offering three-year products and rates for one-year CDs being only slightly higher than regular fixed deposits [4][5]. - New large denomination CDs are being issued at lower rates, with many entering the "1 era" and some short-term rates dropping below 1% [5]. Group 4: Investment Trends - The trend of "deposit migration" is expected to continue, with investors looking for higher returns in the stock market as deposit rates decline [6][7]. - The migration path typically starts from large banks to smaller ones, followed by investments in various asset management products [7]. - Consumer confidence is gradually recovering, which may lead to increased investment in financial products, although the overall risk appetite remains cautious [7].