外科医生将失业？马斯克预测：机器人3到4年内完胜人类顶尖医生，专家称短期内还看不到这个苗头【附人形机器人行业市场分析】

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk predicts that general artificial intelligence (AGI) will become a reality by 2026, with robots surpassing human surgeons in surgical skills within three years and achieving "complete victory over any human doctor" in four years [2]. Group 1: Technological Advancements - Musk's humanoid robot, Optimus, is expected to excel in surgical operations due to two main advantages: extreme operational precision and the ability to share "collective experience" in real-time [2][3]. - Optimus can perform surgeries with sub-millimeter precision, overcoming human limitations such as fatigue and hand tremors, and is equipped with advanced 3D visual and spectral sensing technologies [2]. Group 2: Experience Sharing - The ability of Optimus to share surgical techniques via cloud technology allows each robot to instantly access the accumulated surgical experience of all similar robots globally, significantly enhancing learning and improvement rates compared to human doctors [3]. Group 3: Expert Opinions - Experts in the medical field express caution regarding Musk's predictions, suggesting that while AI will assist doctors, it is uncertain whether surgical robots can outperform human surgeons in the near term [3]. Group 4: Challenges in Humanoid Robotics - Humanoid robots face significant challenges, including rapid battery depletion and poor coordination, which limit their operational capabilities and application scenarios [4]. - The lack of unified underlying algorithm models hampers the efficiency of humanoid robots, requiring separate development for each specific task, which increases costs and time [6]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - Chinese companies are leading the global humanoid robot market, with Zhiyuan Robotics expected to ship over 5,168 humanoid robots by 2025, capturing 39% of the global market share [8]. - The global humanoid robot shipment is projected to grow exponentially to 2.6 million units by 2035, indicating a strong market potential despite current challenges [8].