铜牛市还能持续多久？高盛：1.3万高价不可持续，变盘点或在二季度关税落地后

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that the recent surge in copper prices is primarily driven by a stockpiling trend due to anticipated U.S. tariffs and speculative funds, creating a temporary "scarcity premium" in the market. However, the bank warns that the current high price above $13,000 is unsustainable and significantly detached from the fundamentals [1]. Group 1: Price Predictions and Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs has raised its LME copper price forecast for the first half of 2026 from $11,525 per ton to $12,750 per ton, citing tightening inventories outside the U.S. due to capital inflows and supply shifts [1]. - The bank maintains its fourth-quarter 2026 price forecast at $11,200 per ton, indicating significant downward pressure on prices in the latter half of the year [1]. - The copper price has increased by 22% since late November last year, reaching a peak of $13,387 on January 6 [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - Goldman Sachs expects the second quarter to be a turning point for market sentiment, with a decision on refined copper tariffs likely to shift focus back to a severe global supply surplus [2]. - The global copper market supply surplus forecast for 2026 has been raised from 160,000 tons to 300,000 tons, indicating a return to supply-demand fundamentals as the price driver [2]. Group 3: Speculative Trends and Market Sentiment - The recent rise in copper prices is not supported by traditional supply-demand gaps but rather by capital flows and inventory transfers, with current prices exceeding the reasonable fundamental level of approximately $11,400 per ton [3]. - Speculative positions in the copper market are nearing historical highs, with the proportion of speculative long positions at CME showing signs of being in the later stages of the current price rally [5]. - If speculative net positions increase by 1 percentage point, copper prices could rise by an average of 0.4%, indicating a fragile upward trend driven by speculation [5]. Group 4: Tariff Decision Uncertainty - The timing of the U.S. refined copper tariff decision is a key catalyst for future price movements, with Goldman Sachs reducing the probability of timely implementation from 55% to 45% [4]. - Delays or insufficient increases in tariffs could have dual impacts on LME copper prices, allowing continued stockpiling in the U.S. while also prompting a reassessment of global supply surplus realities [4].