今年A股增量资金有多少？华泰：净流入或达1.6万亿，居民存款、散户资金占四成

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities predicts a net inflow of approximately 1.6 trillion yuan into the A-share market in 2026, driven by significant improvements in the funding supply side, with a total expected inflow of 2.6 trillion yuan after accounting for about 1 trillion yuan in funding needs [1][2]. Group 1: Funding Supply Side - The increase in funding supply is primarily attributed to the accelerated "migration" of household savings and the policy-driven entry of long-term funds [1]. - A historical high of 60 trillion yuan in one-year and above time deposits will mature in 2026, providing a substantial potential liquidity reservoir for the market [3]. - It is estimated that 8% of the maturing deposits will flow into non-monetary asset management products, with about 14% of that amount converting into stock market value, potentially contributing around 650 billion yuan to the A-share market [3]. Group 2: Risk Appetite Recovery - High-risk preference funds are expected to show strong inflow intentions, with an estimated net inflow of approximately 400 billion yuan from retail investors in 2026 [6]. - Leverage and private equity funds are anticipated to remain active, with net inflows of 200 billion yuan and 300 billion yuan respectively, contributing a total of 500 billion yuan [6][9]. - Insurance funds are projected to bring in about 800 billion yuan, as policies encourage leading insurance companies to increase their equity allocation [9]. Group 3: Funding Demand Side - The total funding demand for the A-share market in 2026 is expected to be around 1 trillion yuan, reflecting a relatively moderate growth trend [12]. - The IPO and private placement activities are gradually returning to normal, with an estimated IPO fundraising scale of about 200 billion yuan and private placements of around 500 billion yuan [12]. - Shareholder reduction behavior is expected to remain stable, with a projected net reduction scale of about 300 billion yuan, while the necessity for bottom-supporting buybacks is anticipated to decrease [12].