腾远钴业2025年业绩重回历史高峰，深度受益于铜钴价格上涨

Core Viewpoint - Tengyuan Cobalt's 2025 annual performance forecast indicates a significant increase in net profit, driven by production capacity expansion, cost management, resource recycling, and rising metal prices [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.028 billion to 1.164 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 50.02% to 69.87% [1]. - The non-GAAP net profit is projected to be between 991 million and 1.127 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 47.67% to 67.94% [1]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025 will reach a historical high, with non-GAAP net profit nearing historical peaks [2]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - Growth is attributed to the gradual release of production capacity from fundraising projects, leading to increased total metal output of cobalt, copper, nickel, lithium, and manganese [1]. - The company has implemented lean management reforms and cost control measures, enhancing operational efficiency and overall profitability [1]. - The improvement of the secondary resource recycling system has increased the proportion of recycled materials in the raw material structure, strengthening supply chain resilience and self-sufficiency [1]. - The company benefits from rising market prices for cobalt and copper, significantly boosting product profitability [1]. Group 3: Market Conditions - Copper prices have risen nearly 43% in 2025, with LME copper prices surpassing $13,000 per ton, marking an 8% increase year-to-date [2]. - LME cobalt prices have increased approximately 130% in 2025, with a year-to-date rise of over 6%, currently priced at $56,290 per ton [2]. - Short-term global copper inventory adjustments and supply shortages are expected to support further price increases, while cobalt supply may remain structurally tight, benefiting cobalt resource companies [2]. Group 4: Future Projects and Capacity Expansion - Tengyuan Cobalt plans to establish a joint venture with SAWA Group to build a 30,000-ton copper and 2,000-ton cobalt hydrometallurgical plant in the Democratic Republic of Congo, expected to commence production in Q4 2026 [3]. - The company's copper smelting capacity will reach 90,000 tons, supported by favorable local copper concentrate procurement models [3]. - The company has established upstream and downstream production capacities, including 10,000 tons of cobalt intermediate smelting and 26,500 tons of cobalt salt processing, with a total domestic cobalt production capacity projected to increase by 74% to 46,000 tons [3].