什么信号？高盛警告：投资者涌向黄金避险“大错特错”

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, international gold prices have surged, reaching new highs, with spot gold rising nearly 7% to over $4,600. However, Goldman Sachs warns that investors flocking to gold for safety may be making a significant mistake, as the firm does not favor gold as a diversification tool in investment portfolios [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices experienced a significant increase of over 60% in 2025, marking the largest rise since 1979, and continued to reach new highs in 2026 [1]. - The SPDR Gold Shares ETF saw a substantial inflow of $950 million, reversing its outflow trend in 2026, with a net subscription of $118 million year-to-date [8]. Group 2: Goldman Sachs' Perspective - Goldman Sachs' investment strategy team highlighted that gold has historically shown deep and prolonged drawdowns, with a maximum drawdown of 70% [1]. - The volatility of gold is higher than that of U.S. stocks, and it has only effectively hedged inflation about half of the time over the past 20 years [4][5]. - Goldman Sachs recommends increasing exposure to U.S. stocks, suggesting that unless a recession is imminent, it is challenging to reduce U.S. stock holdings, as economic conditions will ultimately support corporate earnings [11]. Group 3: Contrasting Views - Wells Fargo Investment Institute anticipates further increases in gold prices in 2026, driven by geopolitical tensions and active gold purchases by global central banks [11]. - The Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cuts and a stable dollar are expected to support gold's performance in 2026, although at a slower pace than in 2025 [11].