Amkor Technology(US:AMKR) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-14 09:06Group 1 - UBS downgraded Amkor Technology (AMKR.US) from "Buy" to "Neutral" while raising the target price from $38 to $55, citing that the recent stock price increase reflects strong expectations for computing capability growth but must weigh costs and risks [1] - Since the low point in April 2025, Amkor's stock price has risen by 250%, but UBS believes the stock price reflects faster growth expectations in computing capability, recovery in smartphone SiP, cyclical mainstream market recovery, and the potential of long-term projects in Arizona [1] - UBS expects strong growth in computing demand for 2026-2027, raising the 2025 sales growth forecast from 5% to 6%, while maintaining growth expectations of 14% and 12% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, which is above market expectations of 9% for both years [2] Group 2 - The growth of mature businesses is moderate, with high growth in computing business balanced by low-profit SiP in consumer electronics, smartphones, and automotive/industrial sectors [3] - UBS anticipates a mild recovery in automotive/industrial business with expected growth of 10% and 5% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, due to normalized inventory post-COVID and Amkor's advantages in ADAS/information entertainment [3] - Investment cycles are extended, and high valuations limit upside potential, with Amkor's $7 billion Arizona wafer fab expected to start production in 2028 and profitability in 2029, leading to negative free cash flow of $1 billion from Q4 2025 to 2028 [4]