Will Nvidia Stock Fall Below $100 in 2026? Here's What History Has to Say.

Core Viewpoint - The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has significantly boosted Nvidia's market value, but historical challenges suggest potential risks for the company moving forward [2][10]. Group 1: Nvidia's Market Position - Nvidia has added over $4.1 trillion in market value since the beginning of 2023 and briefly reached a market cap of $5 trillion [2]. - The company's GPUs are the preferred choice for AI-accelerated data centers, with competitors struggling to match Nvidia's compute capabilities [5]. - Nvidia's current stock price is around $185.60, with a market cap of $4.5 trillion and a gross margin of 70.05% [7]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang is committed to an aggressive innovation timeline, planning to release a new advanced chip annually, with the upcoming Vera Rubin chip requiring fewer GPUs for training large language models [7]. - The CUDA software platform is crucial for maximizing the compute potential of Nvidia's hardware, fostering customer loyalty [8]. Group 3: Partnerships and Collaborations - Nvidia has formed strategic partnerships, including a significant collaboration with OpenAI, which will deploy at least 10 gigawatts of AI data centers using Nvidia's GPUs [9]. Group 4: Historical Challenges - Historical trends indicate that major technological advancements often face early-stage bubble-bursting events, which could pose risks for Nvidia as AI technology matures [12][13]. - Nvidia's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio has recently exceeded 30, a level historically associated with market bubbles, indicating potential overvaluation [16]. - The S&P 500's high valuation could lead to significant declines for companies like Nvidia if a market correction occurs [17]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - While Nvidia currently leads the market, there is a risk of losing data center space to top customers who are developing their own, cheaper GPUs [18].