24万颗卫星背后的低轨卫星争夺战，商业航天走到爆发前夜

Core Viewpoint - The commercial space industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with numerous companies submitting satellite constellation applications, leading to increased market interest and investment opportunities [1][8][21]. Group 1: Industry Developments - In January 2026, the commercial space sector gained attention with the IPO acceptance of Blue Arrow Aerospace, which was subsequently inspected by regulatory authorities [1]. - China has expanded its satellite constellation applications to four entities, each proposing over 10,000 satellites, including China Star Network and Shanghai Yuanxin [2]. - Over 60 institutions have submitted satellite applications to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) since 2023, with a total of over 240,000 satellites proposed [8]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - A competition is emerging between state-owned and commercial entities in the low Earth orbit satellite sector, marking a shift from theoretical applications to practical implementations [4]. - Major players like China Star Network and Shanghai Yuanxin have submitted large-scale satellite constellation plans, with China Star Network proposing 12,992 satellites and Shanghai Yuanxin over 15,000 [5][6]. - The Wireless Innovation Institute has also entered the fray with two applications for constellations of 96,714 satellites each [7]. Group 3: Market Potential and Challenges - The demand for large satellite constellations is expected to drive significant manufacturing and launch needs, creating optimistic market expectations [19]. - Analysts predict that the years 2024-2025 will be pivotal for China's commercial space sector, transitioning from technology validation to large-scale networking [21]. - Despite the potential for growth, the industry faces challenges in technology breakthroughs and cost reductions for large-scale satellite launches [23]. Group 4: Company Insights - Blue Arrow Aerospace, a key player in the commercial space sector, is focusing on enhancing its reusable rocket capabilities, although it has yet to achieve profitability [24][25]. - The company is involved in providing launch services for major satellite constellations, including GW and Qianfan [26]. - Other commercial space companies like Interstellar Glory and Zhongke Aerospace are also pursuing IPOs, indicating a growing interest in the sector [27].