关税预期引爆囤货潮！铜价飙升现“稀缺溢价”，高盛警告涨势已脱离基本面？

Group 1 - The recent strong performance of copper prices is primarily driven by market expectations of potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper imports, leading to stockpiling behavior in the U.S. and significant "scarcity premium" in prices [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its LME copper price forecast for the first half of 2026 from $11,525 per ton to $12,750 per ton, while maintaining its fourth-quarter 2026 forecast at $11,200 per ton, indicating that prices above $13,000 are unlikely to be sustainable [1] - The current copper price increase is not due to global supply-demand tightness, as Goldman Sachs projects a global copper market surplus of 600,000 tons in 2025, the largest absolute surplus since 2009, and has adjusted the 2026 surplus forecast from 160,000 tons to 300,000 tons [1] Group 2 - The U.S. decision on refined copper tariffs is a key catalyst for future copper price trends, with Goldman Sachs reducing the probability of timely tariff implementation from 55% to 45% following the White House's delay on lumber tariffs, reflecting a focus on "affordability" ahead of midterm elections [1] - Once the U.S. tariff decision becomes clearer, market attention will shift back to the fundamental global supply surplus, potentially signaling the end of the current price increase cycle driven by stockpiling [2] - From a longer-term perspective, Goldman Sachs predicts that a return to supply-demand balance starting in 2027 will help alleviate supply tightness in markets outside the U.S. [2]