实探2026开年二手车市场：购销两淡，新能源销量略有提升

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the new vehicle replacement subsidy policy in 2026 has disrupted the existing dynamics of the automotive market, leading to a significant impact on both the new and used car sectors [2][7]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Reactions - The new subsidy policy shifts from a fixed amount to a percentage-based calculation, offering 12% for scrapping old cars for new energy vehicles (maximum 20,000 yuan) and 8% for trade-ins (maximum 15,000 yuan) [2]. - Despite the potential savings of up to 35,000 yuan from combined subsidies and tax reductions, the market has not seen the expected surge in transactions, instead experiencing a period of stagnation [2][3]. - The initial increase in inquiries (40% rise) following the policy's announcement did not translate into sales, which fell by 15%, indicating a cautious consumer sentiment [3]. Group 2: Dealer Strategies and Market Dynamics - Dealers are adopting a conservative approach to acquiring used cars due to uncertainties surrounding the new policy, leading to a strategy of "quick turnover and strict inventory control" [3][6]. - The exit of speculative traders, who previously profited from arbitrage opportunities, has further contributed to the market's subdued atmosphere, with a 92% drop in the circulation of "zero-kilometer used cars" [4]. Group 3: Market Segmentation and Performance - There is a noticeable divergence in the used car market, with leading new energy brands like BYD and NIO experiencing growth, while lesser-known brands struggle to attract buyers [5][6]. - Traditional fuel vehicles remain the dominant segment due to their established demand, with prices for certain models increasing by 5%-8% as they become more desirable under the new subsidy framework [6]. - The average resale value for fuel vehicles is higher (52%) compared to pure electric vehicles (45%-50%), making them more appealing to consumers who are wary of new energy options [6]. Group 4: Long-term Implications - The current market downturn is viewed as a transitional phase, paving the way for a healthier industry structure where quality-focused dealers and established brands can thrive [7].