沪铜冲高回落 LME注册仓单下滑【1月14日SHFE市场收盘评论】

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have shown strong performance recently, reaching new highs before experiencing a slight pullback, influenced by surrounding market trends and domestic stock performance [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent increase in copper prices is supported by a significant drop in LME copper registered warehouse receipts, which decreased by 25,000 tons to 89,725 tons, the lowest level since mid-July [1] - Non-US inventories remain low, providing support for copper prices despite a recent increase in LME copper inventory [1] - The overall market sentiment in domestic futures and stock markets has been optimistic, contributing to the upward movement in copper prices [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The release of moderate US inflation data for December has led to market speculation that the Federal Reserve may maintain its current interest rates in January, supporting expectations for future rate cuts [1] - The potential for the US to impose tariffs on refined copper continues to create a siphoning effect on global copper supplies, with increased exports of refined copper from China in the past two months [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - According to Jinrui Futures, the underlying logic for copper prices remains largely unchanged, with expectations of tight supply not being reversed, and recent disturbances in copper mining have intensified concerns about supply [1] - The overall trend for copper prices is expected to remain strong with potential fluctuations, although there is a short-term risk related to the US Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariff policy [1]