尿素情绪大反转！“全面停售”为哪般？

Core Viewpoint - The urea market is experiencing a significant shift, with spot prices halting and futures rising above 1800 yuan/ton, indicating a potential for continued price increases despite high production levels and low inventory [1][3][6]. Group 1: Production and Supply - Daily production of urea in China is projected to reach nearly 210,000 tons by 2025, with an average annual production of 71.56 million tons, reflecting an 8.29% increase from 2024 [3]. - Despite high supply levels being a constant factor that may suppress price increases, various market dynamics such as policies, costs, emotions, demand, inventory, and price levels will influence future trends [3][5]. Group 2: Inventory and Pricing - Urea inventories have been declining, reaching around 1 million tons, with some factories reporting zero inventory and sufficient stock for dispatch [5]. - The current market sentiment suggests that even with temporary slowdowns in purchasing, the pressure on urea factories remains manageable, indicating a potential for price stability [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Demand - Recent geopolitical events and market fluctuations have led to erratic price movements in the urea market, with futures prices rising sharply to 1800 yuan/ton [6]. - Demand for urea is primarily driven by compound fertilizers, industrial use, and agricultural needs, with expectations of continued purchasing activity leading up to the Lunar New Year [7]. - The market is anticipated to remain in a "difficult to drop" price environment before the holiday, with factories preparing for increased demand post-holiday [7].