供需格局失衡，铝代铜成为产业必然？

Core Viewpoint - The trend of "aluminum replacing copper" is becoming an inevitable choice in the industry due to rising copper prices and imbalances in market supply and demand, indicating a long-term technological revolution rather than a short-term speculation [1] Group 1: Price Dynamics - The current copper-aluminum price ratio is at a historical high, reaching 4.21 times, up from a low of 1.7 times in 2005, driven by differences in supply and demand dynamics for both metals [2] - The widening price ratio is pushing aluminum from a technical alternative to a real necessity [6] Group 2: Supply Constraints - Copper's supply lacks elasticity, primarily due to long development cycles of 7-10 years for new mines and low approval rates for environmental assessments [6][7] - In contrast, aluminum's supply constraints are mainly at the smelting stage, influenced by energy supply and water resource availability [8][10] Group 3: Technological Innovations - Systematic technological innovations in new materials, processes, and structures are making large-scale production of aluminum as a substitute for copper feasible [12] - Key technological breakthroughs expected by 2025-2026 include addressing issues like creep and electrochemical corrosion, enhancing aluminum's viability in various applications [13] Group 4: Industry Applications - In the power transmission sector, aluminum has already replaced copper in long-distance transmission lines, and its use in 5G base stations and data centers is increasing due to cost and weight considerations [15] - The air conditioning industry is moving towards standards that favor aluminum, with major companies like Daikin already using over 50% aluminum in their products by 2024 [15][16] Group 5: Market Dynamics - The aluminum sector is experiencing a restructuring phase, with companies that can secure stable, cheap, and green energy resources gaining competitive advantages [9] - China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is capped at 45 million tons, with utilization rates nearing full capacity, indicating limited growth potential [19][21] Group 6: Financial Performance - Major players in the aluminum industry, such as China Aluminum and China Hongqiao, are positioned well in terms of production capacity and profitability, with China Aluminum holding a 17.5% domestic market share [22][23] - The financial metrics indicate that companies like China Hongqiao and Nanshan Aluminum are relatively undervalued compared to their peers, suggesting potential investment opportunities [25][26]