美方通告全球，中方大幅抛售美债，特朗普终于动手，美联储将换人

Core Insights - The global financial market is experiencing significant turbulence due to two major developments: China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds falling below $700 billion, resulting in China losing its position as the second-largest holder, and the U.S. Department of Justice initiating a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with Trump suggesting a leadership change at the Fed soon [1][4]. Group 1: China's Treasury Holdings - As of October 2025, China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds decreased to $688.7 billion, a year-on-year decline of 9.4%, overtaken by the UK with $877.9 billion in holdings [3]. - This reduction is part of China's ongoing strategy to optimize its foreign exchange reserves, having reduced its holdings for four consecutive years since falling below $1 trillion in 2022, with a notable sale of $25.7 billion in July 2025 [3]. - Concurrently, the People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 12 consecutive months, reaching 7.409 million ounces by October 2025, as part of a "de-dollarization" strategy to mitigate risks associated with a single currency [3]. Group 2: U.S. Federal Reserve Dynamics - A political storm has erupted within the Federal Reserve, with Powell confirming a grand jury subpoena related to a renovation project, which he claims is a political pretext for pressure to lower interest rates as demanded by Trump [4]. - The budget for the renovation project has escalated from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion, raising concerns, but Powell insists that interest rate decisions are based on inflation and employment data rather than political directives [4]. - Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell has been evident, with public criticisms regarding interest rate policies, and he has hinted at potential candidates for the next Fed chair, including Kevin Walsh and Kevin Hassett, who align with Trump's desire for lower interest rates [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - The unfolding events have led to market reactions, including a slight weakening of the dollar index, a 5 basis point increase in 10-year Treasury yields, and international gold prices surpassing $2,100 per ounce [6]. - Internal divisions within the Trump administration have emerged, with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin warning that the investigation could disrupt markets, while several Republican lawmakers have stated they will not support a new chair nomination until the investigation concludes [6]. - Powell's term as a Fed governor extends until 2028, and if he refuses to resign, Trump may face a challenging situation of replacing the chair without changing the board, potentially intensifying policy conflicts [6]. Group 4: Global Economic Policy Uncertainty - The dual developments highlight a surge in uncertainty regarding global economic policies, with China's reduction of Treasury holdings being a rational choice for financial security rather than an act of confrontation, while Trump's interference with the Fed raises concerns about the independence of central banks [8]. - The ability of the Fed to maintain policy neutrality is deemed more critical than who succeeds Powell; if monetary policy becomes a political tool, risk-averse sentiment in the market is likely to increase [8]. - Upcoming announcements regarding potential Fed chair candidates around January 21, the progression of Powell's investigation, and adjustments in China's foreign exchange reserves will be key variables influencing the global financial landscape [8].