BP(US:BP) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-14 12:37Core Viewpoint - BP is expected to report a significant after-tax asset impairment loss of $4 billion to $5 billion in its fourth-quarter earnings, primarily related to its transition to low-carbon energy [1] Group 1: Performance Expectations - Despite the impairment, BP anticipates that its total upstream oil and gas production will remain stable compared to the previous quarter, with crude oil production holding steady while natural gas and low-carbon energy output is expected to decline [2] - The natural gas and low-carbon energy segment is projected to face a negative impact of $100 million to $300 million on quarterly performance due to price fluctuations outside of Henry Hub [2] - Retail business sales are expected to decline due to seasonal factors, while fuel margins are anticipated to remain flat [2] Group 2: Financial Structure Adjustments - BP expects its net debt to decrease to between $22 billion and $23 billion by the end of the fourth quarter, a significant improvement from $26.1 billion at the end of the third quarter [3] - The company has raised its expected effective tax rate for the full year 2025 from approximately 40% to 42% due to changes in the geographic structure of earnings [3] - The large impairment highlights the challenges and financial costs faced by traditional energy giants in reshaping their asset portfolios amid global energy price volatility and uncertainties in transition pathways [3]