Will Lower Capex Help Newmont Sustain Free Cash Flow Momentum in Q4?

Core Insights - Newmont Corporation (NEM) achieved record free cash flow of $1.6 billion in Q3 2025, more than doubling year-over-year, driven by lower capital expenditures and increased net cash from operating activities [2][8] - The company reduced its total capital expenditures by approximately 17% year-over-year to $727 million, and lowered its capital guidance for 2025 by $200 million [1][3] Financial Performance - NEM's free cash flow exceeded $1 billion for the fourth consecutive quarter, reflecting strong operational performance [2] - The reduction in sustaining capital by $150 million to $1,725 million and development capital by $50 million to $1,280 million contributed to the overall decrease in capital spending [3] Future Outlook - Despite lower capital expenditures, NEM cautioned that free cash flow in Q4 may be impacted by increased spending on Yanacocha's water treatment construction and planned severance payments [4][8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a projected earnings increase of 81.9% for 2025 and 15.1% for 2026, with EPS estimates trending higher over the past 60 days [10] Industry Comparison - In contrast, Barrick Mining Corporation's capital expenditures increased by 30% year-over-year in Q3, with expectations for further increases in 2025 [5] - Agnico Eagle Mines Limited also anticipates high capital spending levels in 2025, with expenditures projected between $1.75 billion and $1.95 billion [6] Stock Performance - NEM shares have risen 88.5% over the past six months, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry, which increased by 79.6% [7]