PIMCO前高管加码“曲线走陡”交易 特朗普关税案败诉或推高美债供给

Group 1 - Ed Devlin, a former executive at PIMCO and current head of a Toronto hedge fund, is increasing bets on a steepening yield curve, anticipating that if the Trump administration loses a tariff case, the U.S. will be forced to increase borrowing, thereby raising the supply of long-term U.S. Treasuries [1] - The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on a challenge to President Trump's trade policies, which could impact the legal basis for tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [1] - If the court strikes down the tariff basis, the U.S. Treasury could face a significant shortfall, as last year's budget deficit narrowed to $1.67 trillion, largely due to increased tariff revenues of $264 billion [1] Group 2 - Devlin believes that alternative tax measures to fill the potential revenue gap will be politically difficult to implement, especially with midterm elections approaching and voters sensitive to inflation and living costs [1] - The market may be underestimating the scale of U.S. Treasury supply for a considerable part of this year, which could lead to an increase in long-term yields or at least a slower decline compared to short-term rates, thus steepening the yield curve [1] - The yield curve has already steepened significantly since Trump's first year in office, with the spread between two-year and ten-year Treasury yields widening to 64 basis points, up from approximately 30 basis points at the time of his inauguration [1]