TJM Institutional Services LLC利率策略师David Robin:美国就业形势有点不明确,同时我们又有通胀问题。从数据角度看,美联储至少按兵不动到3月的概率上升了。而随着每一次会议从日程表上划去,美联储继续维持不动的概率就变得更大。”Robin说:“无论市场...
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-14 15:42
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. employment situation is somewhat unclear, and there are ongoing inflation concerns, leading to an increased probability that the Federal Reserve will remain inactive at least until March [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Outlook - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining its current stance increases as each meeting passes without action [1] - Market beliefs regarding the Federal Reserve's inaction, regardless of whether the probability is 5%, 10%, or 20%, indicate that these trades are considered inexpensive [1] - For disciplined risk managers, there is a demand for these trades due to their perceived value [1]