为什么中国不能走“消费大国”那条捷径？真正的底牌永远是制造业

Core Argument - The article argues that transitioning from a manufacturing-based economy to a consumption-driven one in China is not feasible without a strong production system, high labor productivity, and stable employment and income growth [3][4][42]. Group 1: Understanding "Consumer Power" - The concept of a "consumer power" is often misunderstood as merely spending more money, but it requires a robust economic structure that supports income generation [5][6]. - A true consumer power must meet three criteria: high income and productivity, sustainable employment structures, and a strong position in international division of labor [7]. Group 2: The Role of Manufacturing - Manufacturing is not an outdated model but serves as a safety net, employment pool, technological foundation, and fiscal base for a country of China's size [4]. - The unique value of manufacturing lies in its ability to organize large-scale employment across various sectors, which is crucial for improving income and job stability [8][10]. Group 3: Economic Structure and Welfare - High welfare and wages are not achievable without a strong underlying economic structure, which includes high productivity, strong capital returns, and advantages in international division of labor [19][20]. - Countries that cannot create high added value while seeking high welfare and consumption may end up relying on debt, inflation, or industrial relocation, which ultimately harms the lower-income groups [20]. Group 4: Path to Sustainable Growth - The article emphasizes that the correct approach is to strengthen industries that can continuously create value before discussing welfare and consumption upgrades [21][24]. - The logical chain for sustainable growth is: upgrading manufacturing → more stable employment and higher productivity → stronger household income → natural consumption upgrade [24]. Group 5: Recommendations for China - China should focus on enhancing manufacturing to support stronger consumption capabilities, with key areas of investment including high-end equipment, advanced materials, and smart manufacturing [27][28]. - Employment absorption capacity should be a hard indicator in industrial policy, as industries that can create numerous middle-skill jobs are essential for expanding the middle class and solidifying the consumption base [28]. - Improving lower-income levels should rely on skills, productivity, and fair distribution mechanisms rather than one-time subsidies [29]. - Development of productive service industries, which can enhance overall efficiency and wage levels, is crucial, as these services are symbiotic with manufacturing [31]. Group 6: Conclusion - The article concludes that a large country's strength lies not in its ability to spend but in its capacity to produce, innovate, and create jobs [42].