Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impending maturity of a significant amount of household savings deposits in China, which could impact market supply and demand dynamics in 2026, amidst a changing macroeconomic environment. Group 1: Deposit Maturity and Scale - The maturity of household savings deposits is expected to reach between 30 trillion to 60 trillion yuan in 2026, with estimates varying among institutions [1][3][5] - The total amount of domestic RMB deposits in financial institutions was approximately 327 trillion yuan as of November 2025, with household time deposits accounting for 121 trillion yuan [3] - A notable decline in the growth of household time deposits was observed, with an increase of only 11.03 trillion yuan in 2025, the lowest since 2022 [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investment Trends - The expectation of a "deposit migration" process has begun, with significant funds potentially flowing into other wealth management assets as deposit rates decline [2][8] - Various brokerages predict a peak in deposit maturities in 2026, particularly for three-year time deposits initiated in 2023, with estimates suggesting a maturity volume of 38 trillion yuan [6][7] - The overall trend indicates that even a small percentage of funds migrating from deposits could represent a substantial amount due to the large base of total deposits [13] Group 3: Alternative Investment Products - Financial products such as wealth management, insurance, and funds are becoming more common alternatives to traditional deposits, with insurance products showing strong appeal due to their higher yields compared to bank deposits [10][11] - The insurance sector is expected to attract significant funds as it offers stable returns and safety, especially as traditional deposit rates decline [10] - Wealth management products are projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting an increase of 3.83 trillion yuan under conservative scenarios in 2026 [9] Group 4: Stock Market Implications - The A-share market has shown signs of increased activity, with a record number of new accounts opened in 2025, indicating potential interest in stock investments [12] - Despite skepticism about a direct correlation between deposit maturity and stock market inflows, the sheer volume of deposits suggests that even minor reallocations could lead to significant capital entering the market [13][14] - Some analysts believe that the current environment may lead to a greater willingness among middle-income groups to invest in the stock market, influenced by positive market sentiment [14]