史无前例！英瑞丹等八国银行行长联合力挺鲍威尔，这场跨国金融表态背后藏着怎样的考量？

Core Viewpoint - The criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell marks a historic moment as he becomes the first sitting Fed chair to face such scrutiny, raising concerns about the independence of central banks globally [1][3]. Investigation Details - On January 9, 2026, the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia issued a grand jury subpoena to the Federal Reserve, focusing on the renovation project of the Fed's headquarters and the veracity of Powell's testimony to Congress in June 2025 [3]. - The renovation, which began in 2022 and is expected to be completed by 2027, has seen its budget increase from an initial $1.9 billion to nearly $2.5 billion, representing a 32% cost overrun [3]. - Powell has denied allegations of "luxurious renovations," clarifying that certain features were removed from the proposal after initial discussions [3]. Political Reactions - Former President Trump distanced himself from the investigation while expressing dissatisfaction with Powell's performance at the Fed [5]. - A joint statement from former Fed chairs and notable economists condemned the investigation as an unprecedented attempt to undermine the Fed's independence [5]. - Central bank leaders from multiple countries issued a rare joint statement supporting Powell and emphasizing the importance of central bank independence for economic stability [5]. Implications for Monetary Policy - Trump's pressure on the Fed is driven by his desire for lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth and reduce federal debt interest payments, which exceed $81 billion monthly [7]. - Despite the Fed's rate cuts in late 2025, Trump continues to advocate for more aggressive reductions [7]. - The investigation has sparked backlash within the Republican Party, with some senators threatening to oppose all Fed nominations until the investigation concludes [8]. Future of Powell and Fed Leadership - Powell's term as Fed chair ends on May 31, 2026, while his term as a Fed governor lasts until January 31, 2028 [10]. - Analysts suggest Powell's resignation is unlikely, with the most probable outcome being his departure after his term ends [10]. - Potential successors include Kevin Hassett and Kevin Walsh, with Hassett being seen as loyal to Trump but lacking monetary policy experience [10]. Market Reactions - The investigation has led to cautious market sentiment, with major U.S. stock indices declining on January 13, 2026 [12]. - Analysts warn that interference in monetary policy could lead to a loss of confidence in U.S. assets, rising borrowing costs, and accelerated de-dollarization [12]. - Historical parallels are drawn to President Nixon's pressure on the Fed in the 1970s, which resulted in runaway inflation [12]. Conclusion - Powell's strong stance in response to the investigation, along with the collective support from global central banks, highlights the significance of this event in relation to the independence of central banking systems [14].