CSX to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Offing Amid Cost Pressures?

Core Insights - CSX Corporation is set to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 22, with earnings estimates revised down by 2.3% to 42 cents per share, aligning with fourth-quarter 2024 actuals. Revenue estimates stand at $3.6 billion, reflecting a 0.5% increase from the previous year [1][9]. Earnings Performance - CSX has a mixed earnings surprise history, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters, with an average miss of 0.23% [2]. - The company's Q3 earnings per share were 44 cents, surpassing the consensus estimate of 42 cents, but showed a year-over-year decline of 4.3% due to lower revenues [7]. Factors Influencing Q4 Performance - The fourth-quarter performance is expected to be negatively impacted by lower coal revenues, with estimates at $490 million, indicating a 1.8% decline from the previous year. Agriculture & Food Products revenues are estimated at $408 million, suggesting a 3% decrease [3]. - Operational challenges, including locomotive and crew shortages, service disruptions, and persistent supply-chain constraints, are anticipated to have affected operational efficiency and shipment volumes. Elevated capital spending is also expected to pressure the company's bottom line [4][9]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for CSX, with an Earnings ESP of -4.99% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), indicating lower odds of exceeding earnings expectations [5].