美联储第一季度降息概率不大

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the U.S. inflation is showing signs of gradual decline, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 reflecting the smallest month-on-month increase since July of the previous year, at 0.3%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, the lowest since May 2025 [2][3] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, marking the lowest levels since March 2021, indicating a consistent downward trend in inflation since September 2025 [2][3] - The main contributors to the CPI decrease in December were the prices of core goods, particularly new cars, used cars, and trucks, which showed zero growth or declines, suggesting that the impact of tariffs is milder than expected [3][5] Group 2 - The housing costs, which have a significant weight in the CPI basket, increased by 0.4% month-on-month, the largest increase in four months, and the year-on-year rate rose from 3.0% to 3.2%, indicating persistent housing inflation [3][4] - The super core inflation, excluding housing, showed a month-on-month increase of approximately 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of about 2.7%, remaining at the lowest levels since the pandemic [4] - The employment growth in the U.S. was significantly lower in 2025, with only 584,000 non-farm jobs added throughout the year, compared to 2 million in 2024, reflecting a slowdown in job creation and an increase in the unemployment rate from 4.0% to 4.4% [6][7] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is based on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, which typically shows lower inflation rates than the CPI, suggesting that the PCE for December 2025 is expected to reflect a similar trend [4] - Despite the potential negative impacts of tariffs, the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and government policies aimed at tax reduction and deregulation may improve employment and income growth [7] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in January 2026, with a probability of over 97%, and is not expected to lower rates until at least June 2026 [7]