避险需求与供给因素共推美债上涨 30年期收益率跌破4.8%创年内新低

Group 1 - U.S. Treasury prices have risen due to safe-haven demand and bond supply considerations, leading to a drop in the 30-year Treasury yield to its lowest level of the year [1] - As of Wednesday's close, yields across various maturities of U.S. Treasuries fell by 2 to 5 basis points, with the 30-year yield dropping below 4.80% for the first time this year [1][3] - Factors contributing to this rebound include a decline in U.S. stock indices, additional safe-haven demand related to potential military action against Iran, and the Supreme Court's postponement of a ruling on tariff policies, which improved the fiscal situation in the U.S. [3] Group 2 - Strong demand in recent Treasury auctions and a routine bond buyback operation targeting 20 to 30-year maturities also played a role in the yield decline [3] - Earlier in the week, yields had risen as traders pushed back expectations for the next Federal Reserve rate cut to later in 2026, influenced by recent employment and inflation data [3] - However, the options market shows an increasing number of traders are dismissing the possibility of a Fed rate cut in 2026, betting instead that rates will remain unchanged throughout the year [4]