碳酸锂下游需求“淡季不淡”

Group 1 - The price of lithium carbonate futures has risen above 170,000 yuan per ton, indicating a comprehensive price increase throughout the lithium battery industry chain from upstream to downstream [1] - By 2025, China's high-quality lithium resources will undergo a strategic reassessment, highlighted by the discovery of a world-class lithium mineral belt spanning 2,800 kilometers across four provinces, significantly increasing China's lithium resource share from 6% to 16.5%, elevating its global ranking from sixth to second [1] - The lithium mineral belt has confirmed over 6.5 million tons of proven resources, with total potential exceeding 30 million tons, marking a significant breakthrough in national mining exploration efforts [1] Group 2 - The recycling of lithium from retired batteries is gaining momentum, with production expected to reach 10,010 tons by December 2025, accounting for 10.1% of total output, indicating a rapid commercialization and scaling of lithium resource recycling [2] - The demand for lithium carbonate is primarily driven by three sectors: electric vehicles, energy storage systems, and consumer electronics, with electric vehicle battery production projected to reach 1,245.5 GWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 41.9% [2] - The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles are expected to reach 12.809 million units in 2025, reflecting a 17.6% year-on-year growth and a retail penetration rate of 54% [2] Group 3 - The energy storage battery industry in China is set for significant expansion, with production expected to reach 344 GWh and 529.43 GWh in 2024 and 2025, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 83.8% and 53.9% [3] - The growth in energy storage demand is driven by the explosive growth of AIDC and photovoltaic storage, supported by policy measures aimed at enhancing the national electricity market system [3] Group 4 - Since early 2026, the lithium battery industry's downstream demand has remained strong, contributing to rising lithium carbonate prices, with export tax rebates for battery products set to decrease from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026 [4] - The adjustment of export tax rebate policies is expected to positively impact first-quarter export demand, although the release of pent-up demand may be limited compared to other industries like photovoltaics [4] - Companies in the lithium battery supply chain are advised to manage risks and seize opportunities for profit-taking while being cautious of inventory price fluctuations [4]