资深央行记者：为赢中选，特朗普“三大杠杆”刺激经济，今年“极有可能成功”，但是......

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses unprecedented measures taken by Trump to accelerate the U.S. economy, with a focus on coordinated fiscal, monetary, and credit policies aimed at stimulating growth ahead of the midterm elections [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy Shift - The fiscal policy has shifted from tightening to injecting nearly $200 billion into the economy through the tax reform signed by Trump in July [2][3] - The average tariff rate is not expected to rise, and there may even be a decrease if certain tariffs are deemed illegal by the Supreme Court [2] - Tax cuts introduced in the tax and spending bill will provide new or expanded deductions, leading to a dual stimulus effect with higher take-home pay for workers and tax refunds [2] Group 2: Credit Policy Relaxation - Regulatory changes have led to a loosening of credit restrictions, allowing banks to hold more U.S. Treasury securities and reducing barriers to mergers [3] - The government has ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, which could lower mortgage rates by 0.1 to 0.25 percentage points, boosting housing demand [4][3] Group 3: Monetary Policy Changes - Trump is attempting to exert control over the Federal Reserve, advocating for lower interest rates to align with his economic policies [5] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates from the current range of 3.5% to 3.75% by 0.25 percentage points, moving towards a more stimulative stance [5] Group 4: Long-term Consequences - The current policy approach may lead to a significant increase in debt-to-GDP ratio, potentially exceeding 100%, which could impoverish future generations and pose a risk of a debt crisis [6][8] - The relaxation of credit and regulatory measures in an already high-valuation environment could ultimately lead to a market crash [7][8]