美联储1月议息预测：维持不变的概率94.2%

Core Viewpoint - The latest predictions from Polymarket indicate a high probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in January, with a 94.2% chance of no change [1] Interest Rate Predictions - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 5.5% [1] - The likelihood of a rate cut of 50+ basis points is less than 1% [1] - The chance of a rate hike of 25+ basis points is also less than 1% [1] Future Rate Cut Expectations - Polymarket forecasts a 28% probability of cumulative rate cuts totaling 75 basis points by 2026 [1] - There is a 26% probability for a 50 basis point cut [1] - The probability of a 100 basis point cut is 17% [1] - A 125 basis point cut has a 9% probability [1]