日元兑人民币汇率跌至4.48历史新低

Exchange Rate Status and Market Reaction - The Japanese yen reached a historic low against the Chinese yuan at 4.48 on December 19, 2025, marking the lowest level on record; the yen also fell below 157 against the US dollar, despite a 25 basis point interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, which failed to reverse the downward trend [1][2] Core Drivers of the Downward Trend - The conflict between monetary policies is evident as the Japanese government introduced a fiscal stimulus plan exceeding 21 trillion yen, raising debt concerns with a national debt-to-GDP ratio of 264%, while the central bank only made a minor interest rate increase; Prime Minister Fumio Kishida publicly opposed aggressive rate hikes, leading to a collapse in market confidence [3] - The widening interest rate differential between Japan and the US, with the US 10-year Treasury yield remaining above 4%, has driven continued selling of the yen through arbitrage trading [3] Economic and Social Impact - Input-driven inflation is eroding purchasing power, with rice prices soaring by 90% since the beginning of the year, and beef prices increasing by 150%-200% over the past 12 years, forcing consumers to cut back on food spending [6] - For every 1 yen depreciation, Japanese households face an annual increase in expenses of 6,000 yen, negating the benefits for exporting companies [7] - Small and medium-sized enterprises are facing survival crises due to skyrocketing import costs, with manufacturing profit growth declining by 2.1%, and tourism revenue sharply decreasing, further worsening the employment market [8] Intervention Challenges and Global Risks - The policy toolbox is nearing exhaustion, as government debt stands at 235% of GDP; if interest rates rise to 0.75%, annual debt servicing costs could surge by 8 trillion yen, potentially triggering a sovereign debt crisis [10] - Foreign exchange intervention is limited, with nearly half of the foreign reserves committed to US investments, leaving insufficient funds available; interventions in 2024 cost 5 trillion yen but only provided temporary stabilization [10] - There is a risk of a global financial chain reaction if approximately 20 trillion yen in arbitrage funds return en masse, which could impact liquidity in emerging markets and lead to competitive currency devaluations [10] - If the yen falls below the 160 mark, Japan may be forced to utilize foreign reserves for intervention, although the US has clearly opposed unilateral actions; without coordinated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve or G7 support, the yen could plunge towards 180:1 against the dollar [10]