【银河非银张琦】行业点评丨融资保证金调整点评：节奏调节精准发力，助力市场稳健运行

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of the financing margin ratio from 80% to 100% aims to cool down excessive leverage and maintain market stability, reflecting a policy approach of "precise regulation and smooth transition" [2][3] Group 1: Market Adjustment - The increase in the financing margin ratio is a targeted measure by regulators based on the current market conditions, focusing on reducing excessive leverage and ensuring market stability [3] - The financing margin ratio was previously lowered from 100% to 80% in September 2023 to stimulate market activity, which led to a significant increase in financing leverage from 1x to 1.25x, enhancing market liquidity [3] - As of January 13, 2026, the balance of margin financing in A-shares reached a historical high of 2.67 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.5%, with daily trading volumes exceeding 3.1 trillion yuan on multiple occasions [3] Group 2: Short-term Impact - The adjustment to the financing margin ratio means that investor leverage will decrease from 1.25x back to 1x, resulting in a significant increase in capital costs and a direct 20% reduction in new financing capacity [4] - This change is expected to limit the scale of new financing entering the market, with an estimated impact of around 130 billion yuan under neutral assumptions, particularly affecting high-volatility stocks reliant on financing [4] - The existing margin financing balance of 2.67 trillion yuan remains unaffected, indicating that the overall market risk is manageable, with the financing balance accounting for only about 2.59% of the A-share market capitalization [4] Group 3: Long-term Strategy - The adjustment is seen as a crucial step in optimizing the capital market ecosystem, promoting a shift from "leverage-driven" to "value-driven" investment, thereby improving market pricing efficiency [5] - By preemptively preventing excessive accumulation of leverage, this policy aims to mitigate systemic risks and lay a solid foundation for the long-term stable and healthy development of the capital market [5] - Historical experiences from 2015 indicate that increasing the financing margin ratio effectively controlled market leverage risks, leading to a phase of stable market operation [5]