高物价、收入下滑，美国关税政策不断加剧自身民生压力

Core Insights - The U.S. tariff policy is exacerbating domestic economic pressures, leading to declining consumer confidence and increased inflation [3][4][6] - A recent survey indicates that the consumer confidence index for December 2025 is at 53.3, significantly down from 74 in December 2024, reflecting growing concerns over economic stability [3][4] - The holiday shopping season saw a 26% average price increase for popular gifts compared to the previous year, with specific categories like home goods and electronics experiencing even higher price hikes [3][5] Consumer Impact - Many American families are feeling the financial strain from tariff policies, leading to reduced purchasing power during the holiday season [4][5] - A survey revealed that 87% of respondents believe grocery prices have risen, and about two-thirds reported increased expenses for utilities and holiday gifts [4][6] - Approximately 40% of families have cut back on the number of gifts purchased, and nearly one-third have reduced the number of gift recipients due to rising costs [5][6] Tariff Effects on Pricing - The majority of tariff costs (70.5%) are being passed on to consumers, with retailers absorbing the remaining 29.5% [6] - Retailers are incorporating tariff costs into product pricing, leading to higher expenses for consumers [6][7] - The analysis indicates that from March to September 2025, imported goods prices rose by about 4%, while domestic goods saw a 2% increase due to tariffs [6][7] Broader Economic Implications - The ongoing tariff policy is expected to suppress overall demand in the U.S., with a forecast of continued pressure on trade volumes and slowing household consumption growth [7] - The OECD has reported that the value of imported goods subject to tariffs has significantly decreased compared to non-tariffed imports, indicating a broader economic impact [7]