摘要：或将面临巨额罚款（欢迎关注杠杆游戏）

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group is under investigation by the State Administration for Market Regulation for suspected abuse of market dominance, leading to a significant drop in its stock price [2][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - The investigation is a result of a series of prior regulatory actions, including discussions with multiple online travel agencies (OTAs) regarding practices like "choose one from two" and price fraud [3][5]. - In September 2025, Ctrip was found to have violated the Electronic Commerce Law, leading to administrative discussions regarding its management practices [5]. - A December 2025 statement from the Yunnan Provincial Tourism Homestay Industry Association initiated antitrust protection actions against OTAs, citing unfair trading conditions and unilateral commission increases by platforms like Ctrip [5]. Group 2: Market Context - The investigation reflects a broader trend of intensified antitrust regulation in China's platform economy since late 2020, with the online travel sector becoming a focal point due to its high digitalization and market concentration [7][9]. - Ctrip has established a significant market advantage in hotel bookings and flight sales, holding nearly 70% of the GMV market share, with its main brand accounting for 56% [9]. Group 3: Alleged Antitrust Behaviors - Allegations against Ctrip include coercive exclusive cooperation agreements, algorithmic pricing interventions, and opaque commission structures that lack transparency [9]. - The potential for Ctrip to face fines is estimated to be between 1% to 4% of its previous year's revenue, which could amount to approximately 6 billion to 24 billion yuan [16][18]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Ctrip's financial performance has shown recovery, with a reported revenue of 183 billion yuan in Q3 2025, marking a 16% year-over-year increase [11]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, Ctrip's revenue and net profit reached 470.8 billion yuan and 290.1 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-over-year growth of 15.94% and 94.59% [12].