美联储褐皮书：经济、物价温和增长，通胀压力难以忽视

Economic Activity - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that economic activity in most regions of the U.S. has recently grown, with employment conditions remaining stable, but inflationary pressures have not fully dissipated [1][2] - Economic activity has accelerated at a "slight to moderate" pace since mid-November 2025, with 8 out of 12 Federal Reserve districts reporting growth, 3 reporting no change, and 1 reporting a moderate decline [4] - The improvement in economic activity is characterized by significant "unevenness," with regions dependent on consumption and services benefiting from a slight rebound in consumer spending [5][6] Employment Conditions - The employment market shows a "mixed" result, with 8 out of 12 districts reporting stable employment levels and near stagnation in job growth, indicating a lack of growth momentum [11][12] - Employment conditions vary significantly by industry, with stable employment in healthcare and education, while manufacturing and retail sectors face challenges due to tariffs and economic cycles [13][14] - Wage growth is described as "moderate," with reports indicating that wage increases have returned to "normal" levels [15] Price Pressures - Most Federal Reserve districts report moderate price increases, with only 2 districts noting slight price rises, driven by ongoing cost pressures from tariffs [16] - Companies are beginning to pass on tariff-related costs to consumers, although some sectors, like retail and dining, are hesitant to do so due to price sensitivity [16] - Energy and insurance sectors continue to significantly impact profit margins, with expectations of some price relief in the future, but prices are anticipated to remain high due to rising costs [17] Regional Highlights - Boston: Economic activity shows slight improvement, with consumer spending increasing, particularly in high-end goods and services [18] - New York: Economic activity continues to decline slightly, with a decrease in employment and moderate wage growth [19] - Philadelphia: Economic activity has shown signs of recovery, with slight improvements in employment levels [19] - Chicago: Economic activity remains unchanged, with slight increases in consumer spending and construction demand [20] - Dallas: Economic activity remains stable, with growth in the banking sector and cautious outlook due to inflation concerns [20]