Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-15 02:00Core Viewpoint - Oriental Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-W (09988), forecasting FY2026-2028 revenues of 1,030.7 billion, 1,143.2 billion, and 1,251.8 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 91.6 billion, 135.8 billion, and 176.1 billion yuan respectively. The estimated market value of the company is 35,656 billion yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 207.7 HKD, driven by AI in Alibaba Cloud and a steady reduction in losses in e-commerce despite industry challenges [1]. E-commerce Sector - The e-commerce industry is experiencing a slowdown, with a projected FY26Q3 CMR of 1,054.8 billion yuan (yoy +3.4%). The overall growth rate is declining due to high base effects and tax policy impacts, with online retail growth rates of 4.9% and 1.5% in October and November 2025 respectively, showing significant deceleration [1]. - The company has increased its commission rate by 0.6%, which has neutralized the positive impact on CMR, indicating continued pressure in the first half of FY26 due to high base effects [1]. Instant Retail - The estimated loss for the company's instant retail business in FY26Q3 is around 21.5 billion yuan, with an average loss per unit of 3.7 yuan, improved from the expected 4.0 yuan. The quarter shows a clear trend of reduced losses, with healthy market share and order structure [2]. - Taobao Flash, as a key high-frequency consumption scenario, plays a significant role in user retention and traffic within the ecosystem, with expectations for continued investment in maintaining market share and reducing losses in the medium to long term [2]. Cloud Intelligence Group - The Cloud Intelligence Group is expected to achieve revenues of 434.9 billion yuan in FY26Q3 (yoy +37.0%), with external revenue accelerating significantly compared to Q2. The demand for AI cloud services continues to grow rapidly, supported by increased investments in AI applications [3]. - Alibaba Cloud, as the only full-stack AI cloud provider in China, is anticipated to benefit from a flywheel effect that drives both revenue and profit growth through enhanced demand for computing power and application scenarios [3]. Other Segments - The AIDC segment is projected to incur a loss of 1.89 billion yuan in FY26Q3, primarily due to increased seasonal losses from promotional activities. The segment is expected to continue its trend of reduced losses [4]. - Other segments are expected to incur a total loss of 7.12 billion yuan in FY26Q3, driven by increased spending on AI model training and applications. The company is enhancing its AI product offerings and increasing investments in consumer-facing AI applications [4]. AI Application Development - Alibaba's model development capabilities are strong, with ongoing enhancements in multi-modal and agent capabilities. Upcoming releases of major model updates are expected to further expand AI application scenarios [5]. - The company is optimistic about the potential breakthroughs in native AI applications and the empowerment of other business segments through AI advancements [5].