国金证券：26年重卡内需量有韧性看点在盈利修复 出海稳增无忧看点在欧洲

Core Viewpoint - Guojin Securities maintains a positive outlook on the heavy truck industry, shifting the investment strategy from "cycle betting" to "structural selection," prioritizing companies with high export exposure or significant marginal progress, state-owned enterprises with greater profit elasticity, and those benefiting from the electrification trend in Europe [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In 2025, heavy truck sales are expected to exceed expectations, but the stock market performance remains relatively flat, reflecting concerns about sustainability beyond 2026 [2] - The focus of the market is shifting from "is there demand" to "is it profitable and how long can it last" [3] - The internal demand for heavy trucks is improving due to the initiation of the National V update cycle and the implementation of anti-involution policies [3] Group 2: Sales and Export Insights - In 2025, the core stocks in the heavy truck sector show significant price performance divergence, primarily due to differences in export performance [4] - Domestic sales are driven by subsidies, contributing an estimated 180,000 units, while the economic viability of electric heavy trucks is encouraging fleet transitions to electric vehicles [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - For 2026, internal demand is expected to show resilience, supported by the gradual initiation of the National V update cycle and continued policies for replacing older vehicles [5] - The export market, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, is still in a phase of market expansion and share increase, with the Russian market expected to recover post-inventory clearance [5] - The heavy truck industry is anticipated to experience profit recovery driven by anti-involution and state-owned enterprise market value management [5]