国债ETF（511010）近20日资金净流入超2.8亿元，债市配置价值显现

Group 1 - The net inflow of funds into the government bond ETF (511010) exceeded 280 million yuan in the past 20 days, indicating the value of allocation in the bond market [1] - Historical trends suggest that interest rates are more likely to follow a trend rather than revert to the mean, with macroeconomic fundamentals showing a clear trend and monetary policy maintaining stability [1] - The economic environment in China has been in a bottoming phase since 2015, with weak investment from traditional sectors but strong government investment, resilient exports, and consumer spending hovering at the bottom [1] Group 2 - The December CPI showed a mild increase, while the PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed, indicating that the economic bottom structure in China is gradually being established [1] - The central bank's monetary policy report from the fourth quarter of last year revealed limited new content and did not signal an urgent need for interest rate cuts, reflecting a neutral to slightly optimistic view on the macro economy [1] - If the current macro environment persists, the probability of interest rates rising is greater than that of falling, and the cost-effectiveness of wave trading is not as high as it was 25 years ago [2]