特朗普弄巧成拙？市场预测：美联储将更加鹰派 鲍威尔或成“影子主席”

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has escalated to a judicial level, with the U.S. Department of Justice issuing a subpoena to the Federal Reserve, marking the first criminal investigation of a Fed chairman in U.S. history. This may inadvertently push the Fed towards a more hawkish stance, complicating Trump's potential selection of a dovish successor [1]. Group 1: Powell's Future at the Fed - Powell's term as Fed Chairman ends in May, but unless he resigns, his term as a board member will last until January 2028, indicating that the conflict with Trump may continue beyond May [2]. - Betting markets have significantly reduced the likelihood of Powell leaving the Fed after May 30, with only a 45% chance compared to 74% earlier in the month, and a 62% chance of leaving by the end of the year, down from 85% [5]. Group 2: Potential Leadership Changes - The betting market has reassessed the likelihood of Kevin Hassett, a close ally of Trump, succeeding Powell, now favoring Kevin Warsh, who has a more hawkish stance on monetary policy [5]. - Analysts predict a more hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as a result of the ongoing disputes, with Powell likely to remain a board member for the next two years, contrary to the expectations of the Trump administration [8]. Group 3: Implications of the Judicial Investigation - The investigation by the Justice Department may reinforce the Fed's independence, as policymakers strive to avoid political pressure, especially in light of the scrutiny surrounding Powell [9]. - Powell's potential decision to remain at the Fed may be influenced by the need to protect the institution's independence and credibility, particularly after the investigation [9]. - Trump's chances of securing Senate support for Hassett's appointment as Fed Chairman appear diminished, further complicating the leadership transition [9].