Vatee万腾外汇：美元兑加元连续三个交易日于1.3890附近横盘

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate remains stable around 1.3890, supported by recent US economic data indicating resilience in the economy, while the CAD is influenced by energy market performance [1][3][4] Group 1: US Economic Data - Recent US retail sales for November reached $735.9 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, surpassing market expectations [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) growth rate remains stable year-on-year, contributing to a positive outlook on the US economic fundamentals [1] Group 2: Market Expectations and Monetary Policy - Market expectations suggest a low likelihood of the Federal Reserve adjusting interest rates in the near term, providing temporary support for the USD [3] - Financial institutions have adjusted their forecasts for future policy, shifting focus to mid-next year [3] Group 3: CAD and Energy Market Influence - The CAD's performance is closely tied to the energy market, particularly as Canada is a major crude oil exporter [3] - Current West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices are stable above $60 per barrel, supported by geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics, which helps limit the USD/CAD exchange rate's upward movement [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis and Future Outlook - The USD/CAD exchange rate is expected to continue in a range-bound pattern in the short term, with significant economic data releases potentially causing temporary fluctuations [4] - Long-term exchange rate direction will depend on economic growth differences between the US and Canada, the degree of monetary policy divergence, and changes in global risk sentiment [4] - Market participants are advised to adopt a flexible allocation strategy to respond to potential changes amid ongoing uncertainties [4]