Ge Long Hui·2026-01-15 04:19Core Viewpoint - Alibaba is expected to release its Q3 FY2026 financial report, with projected revenue growth of 2% year-on-year and an adjusted EBITA margin of 11.7% [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q3 FY2026, Alibaba's revenue is anticipated to reach 285.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 2% year-on-year increase, with international digital commerce and cloud intelligence revenues growing by 8% and 35% respectively [2][3]. - The adjusted EBITA for Q3 FY2026 is projected at 33.5 billion yuan, down 39% year-on-year, with the EBITA margin decreasing by 7.8 percentage points due to ongoing investments in flash sales and increased computational demands from AI applications [4][6]. Group 2: Cloud Business - Alibaba's cloud revenue is expected to accelerate in Q3 FY2026, with a year-on-year growth of 35%, while maintaining a stable EBITA margin [4][5]. - The Qwen model has been adopted as the technical foundation for Singapore's national AI project, which is expected to enhance Alibaba's market share overseas, with anticipated higher growth rates in international cloud revenue compared to domestic [4]. Group 3: E-commerce Performance - The gross merchandise volume (GMV) for Alibaba's e-commerce segment is projected to increase by 3% year-on-year in Q3 FY2026, impacted by a weak retail environment [6]. - The company is expected to incur losses of approximately 20-25 billion yuan in its instant retail segment, with plans to prioritize market share and increase investments in the coming quarters [6]. Group 4: Other Business Segments - The AIDC segment is expected to continue its revenue decline, with losses remaining similar to the previous quarter, while the overall losses for other segments are projected to exceed 7 billion yuan due to increased spending on model training and AI applications [6]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 have been slightly adjusted to 1.0307 trillion, 1.1494 trillion, and 1.2751 trillion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.5%, 2.8%, and 1.4% respectively, primarily due to a weak consumer environment [3][6]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 are revised to 101.6 billion, 135.4 billion, and 165.5 billion yuan, with reductions of 9.1%, 6.6%, and 3.7% respectively, driven by weaker-than-expected e-commerce revenue and higher-than-expected costs related to AI applications [3][6].