“战术性看涨”原油和贵金属，“结构性看涨”铝，铜价“或一个月内见顶”--这家投行的“最新商品判断”

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market is at a critical turning point influenced by geopolitical tensions and supply shortages, with specific forecasts for various commodities through 2026 [1][20]. Oil Market - The short-term oil market is driven by geopolitical premiums, with a price target of $70 per barrel for Brent crude, influenced by tensions in Iran and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as export disruptions in Kazakhstan and Libya [3][6]. - However, the long-term outlook is bearish due to expected supply surplus and policy pressures, particularly from the U.S. government aiming for lower oil prices [6][20]. Precious Metals - In the precious metals sector, silver is expected to outperform gold, with target prices set at $100 per ounce for silver and $5,000 for gold, driven by current market momentum and capital flows [7][20]. - The report suggests that these high price levels may trigger hedging actions from producers and central banks [7]. Base Metals - Aluminum is identified as having the most structural opportunity, facing a significant supply deficit, with short-term price targets of $3,400 per ton and mid-term targets of $3,500 [8][20]. - In contrast, copper is forecasted to reach $14,000 per ton, but the confidence in this projection has weakened significantly since December, with a warning that January may be the peak for the year [11][20]. Lithium Market - The lithium market has seen a rebound of over 50%, primarily due to supply constraints from delays in mining operations and tightening policies [12][14]. - Citigroup has raised the three-month price target for lithium carbonate to $25,000 per ton, reflecting strong demand from battery manufacturers [13][20]. - Despite the short-term strength, there is a cautious long-term outlook for lithium prices, anticipating downward pressure as supply increases [14]. Natural Gas and Agriculture - The natural gas market is expected to face long-term supply surplus challenges, with bearish views on LNG and European TTF gas prices starting from 2027 [15][20]. - In agriculture, a bullish outlook is maintained for most commodities, with sugar prices expected to rebound in 2026 due to increased demand from China and changes in Brazilian production [19][20].